In the past 15 years, I have had the privilege of going to China on a regular basis to witness the miraculous economic miracle of China's transformation into a modern economy.
Cities like Shanghai and Beijing have gradually turned into gleaming cities in less than a generation, and these cities have inspired the awe of those who have seen this transformation. Almost in all areas of the economy, China has turned into an industrial powerhouse, and in many key areas, all intensive purposes have caught up with the West.
In stark contrast to this continuing and seemingly endless economic miracle, the United States first encountered a series of costly wars on September 11 in the past decade. There are a series of endless economic problems in the domestic economy.
Ten years ago, the first Internet stock bubble burst allowed us to experience the future for the first time. The last global collapse caused by the US real estate bubble led to the worst recession since the Great Depression, which has shaken confidence and sparked speculation about a structural recession in the United States.
As this article is about to release, in August 2011 and the recent US crisis, the artificial and political crisis brought about by the government debt ceiling has exacerbated discomfort and the United States is now more politically and politically dysfunctional. feel. economic. Although a political agreement has been reached, people are increasingly feeling that things will not continue and may get worse before they get better.
The United States faces some disturbing problems in the economy and there is no drought. Whether in the short or long term, the United States faces many challenges. So far, it must be said that it has not done particularly well in the face of these challenges, and that US politics has not yet stimulated any degree of confidence.
Similarly, China has many years of uninterrupted growth and truly outstanding achievements. In this article, I don't want to detail China's success, nor do I want to talk about the problems facing the United States.
If we look at the world, of course, when analyzing whether the United States will continue to maintain its privileged position as a global superpower and a superior economy, many factors must be considered.
If we analyze the strength of the world and all nations economically, politically and militarily, there are many factors to consider.
First, in terms of geography and demographics, the United States cannot escape the pre-eminence of the American continent. With a population of more than 300 million and a large economy, no country in North America, South America or Central America can challenge the United States. Most of them are too small, and only Brazil's population is only about half of the US long-term may be economically close to its size.
Therefore, if the United States will never challenge the rest of the world in its own backyard. Then Africa is a non-issue. There is no indication that in the Middle East, countries outside the oil market will challenge the United States as the world's most important power. It is the Middle East countries that may bring problems to the United States, but no country will occupy a superpower status, and most countries will become smaller and richer economies whose population base is mainly based on a single commodity oil.
As far as Europe is concerned, the United States faces almost all the problems that Europeans face. Most European countries are also rapidly ageing and may be worse off than the US in terms of rights programs. There is no reason to believe that Britain, France or Germany, the two largest economies, may challenge the economic or military advantage of the United States.
Russia and the former Soviet republics are not a challenge to the United States. The Russian economy relies mainly on energy. The Russian population is expected to be reduced by nearly a third compared to the next generation. As a superior economic or military superpower, it is extremely unlikely to challenge the United States again.
Given the rapid ageing of Japan's population and other problems they are currently facing, the Japanese are unlikely to challenge the US economic advantage again.
There is an important lesson here. In my life 30 years ago, the future should belong to Japan. The United States has been reduced to second-rate power. Just before this, the Japanese stock market crashed and the real estate market collapsed. Their economy has never recovered.
This basically left China and India. The population is over 1 billion and it is growing.
However, India still has a long way to go before it can hope to catch up with the United States. India also has a high diversity of hundreds of different races. In the next century, it is unlikely to challenge the United States as a superpower economically or militarily.
Therefore, the future will continue to make the United States one of the most important countries in the world. No matter what short-term problems the United States faces, it will become one of the two most important countries in the world.
The question is whether it is still the most important country or whether it will lose China's status.
Let us look at it again here. Yes, China is developing rapidly, yes, it will soon exceed the total economic output of the United States. This does not mean that it will become a more important country than the United States.
The following are some of the advantages that the United States does not have in China.
English is used as the main language of business worldwide, and because of history, the Chinese will never replace English. There is no doubt that this is a very crucial advantage. The cultural and historical connection between the United States and Europe means that China's influence in this area cannot be surpassed.
The United States has shown great advantages in adopting certain aspects of its culture and values, including contradictions in China, in societies around the world. The Chinese cannot say this.
American brands are still global and dominant in many areas. How many Chinese brands can you tell... American multinationals still dominate the world. How many global Chinese companies can you tell...
At this point, it is also important to ask a very basic question. What are the actual structural advantages of the Chinese?
They are not rich in resources. Therefore, the Chinese must compete to try to enter areas that have proven to be very difficult in the past. In areas like Africa... In the past, many of the areas they tried to build themselves were very unstable.
Although it can be said that the US political system has problems, the United States has remained basically stable for more than 100 years. It is not clear that China will continue to enjoy a stable political climate among future generations.
Here, I am not going to debate the political system or structure of China. I will only say that it will only be challenged if the domestic economic growth slows down or the matter ends.
One of the main undisputed advantages that China enjoys is cheap labor, which is highly disciplined and diligent. However, China's labor costs have risen and will continue to rise. Just as Japan lost this advantage, so is China. At that time it will have to rely on innovation to drive economic growth.
Of course, as long as China catches up in areas such as construction and infrastructure, there is more room for domestic growth. However, there are clear signs that China's housing bubble is developing and the effective return on capital has fallen sharply.
These will not affect the great achievements of the Chinese people, nor will they affect China's continued importance as an increasingly important figure on the world stage. I also wish the Chinese people to go further on the road ahead.
The fact is that no matter what the current problem is, the United States will continue to play a key role in the world economy and on the world stage to achieve the balance of the 21st century.
Orignal From: Does China replace the United States with a world economic and political superpower?
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