The May 12 earthquake in Sichuan Province in western China will have an impact on areas outside China, while Beijing is relaxing. Sichuan Province is the key to China's renewable energy target hydropower generation plan, which is also the hub for global outsourcing of wind power equipment. Both were seriously damaged.
The infrastructure will take months or years to repair, but at the same time, Chinese media reported that "the earthquake in US dollars is negligible, and it seems unlikely that China's economic growth will be greatly affected." I dare not Different.
The earthquake destroyed dams and roads, but at the same time it opened up mythological loopholes, an expanding China can accommodate countless companies that want to open facilities there. We have been hiding on the wall of outsourcing dependence to solve our domestic pollution and economic problems, and the Great Wall is about to collapse.
Hydropower crutches: Sichuan's electricity production through hydropower dams accounts for 62% of national electricity production, of which "396 dams are considered severely damaged, many power plants in the river system are destroyed, and several major reservoirs are being submerged. According to Chen Lei, Minister of Water Resources, the seismic safety of these dams is worrying and many of them are expected to be repaired and reinforced.
Even before the earthquake, Beijing had admitted that many of the country's 87,000 dams had major flaws. "About 37,000 dams in the country are at risk," said Jiao Yong, deputy director of the Ministry of Water Resources, earlier this year, noting that many dams were built decades ago.
Two weeks after the earthquake, the Ministry of Water Resources admitted that 69 reservoirs and dams were on the verge of collapse, and nearly 3,000 reservoirs nationwide were damaged.
If the always secret central government is releasing this type of information, I can only conclude that there is no guarantee of reliable power from the region. The series of facts surrounding hydropower production in western China is a chain that has extended from China to the backyard, and this connection has broken down.
Don't count renewable energy eggs before hatching: China has more dams than any other country - about half of the world's total. The "Eleventh Five-Year Plan" hopes to develop rapidly and large-scale development of rivers per metre in the western Yunnan, Sichuan and Gansu provinces to meet the power needs that factories and households cannot meet. The Chinese government must now reconsider its active dam construction plan.
If the hydropower project is abandoned, there will continue to be a permanent power shortage in the country. China's hydropower consumption accounts for about 7% of its total energy consumption in 2007.
Before the earthquake, the central government was considering: "Sichuan has the largest hydropower resource reserves in the country, estimated to exceed 110 GW. Yunnan has some hydropower stations under construction in the middle and lower reaches of the Lancang River, and plans to add another 11 projects between 2016 and 2016. Gansu's rich Yellow River hydropower resources can provide electricity to neighboring provinces. Qinghai, Shanxi, Sichuan and Ningxia have great potential.
no longer.
The China Electricity Council believes that less than 20% of the country's hydropower resources are being used. According to the government plan before the earthquake, the installed capacity of hydropower in 2010 should reach 125 GW, accounting for 28% of the total installed capacity; in 2015 it may reach 150 GW, and by 2020 the target is 300 GW. These plans are unlikely to advance as planned. This will make China far behind its power generation targets, far less than the capacity needed to attract manufacturing companies to the region.
Slow decline: China's Western Development Program aims to attract university graduates and businesses to the western region, thereby stimulating the inland regions where China's economy is less affluent.
The bait most commonly used by the central government is the main economic and technological development zones, special economic zones and urban industrial zones, providing tax-free status and preferential transportation and wage agreements. This is good when there is a continuous supply of electricity, but now in the western region, this is absolutely guaranteed. China State Grid announced that Sichuan's power grid is operating at 76% of its pre-earthquake level. Notice how easy it is to save the surrounding provinces, and these provinces have also suffered damage.
A recent article by China Daily - "China is expected to surge in demand and lead to power shortages" - quoted from the Office of the State Electricity Regulatory Commission as saying "Guangdong Province will lack 5.5GW, Guizhou 1GW, Yunnan 1.5GW". They once again ruled out shortages in Sichuan, Gansu, Inner Mongolia, Zhejiang, Jiangsu and Shanxi provinces to obtain a reliable total. This will be a power shortage for the fifth consecutive year nationwide. Now consider: all of the country's hydropower generation is in operation for the past four years.
This year, electricity may be short of 10 GW, so please pay attention to the power rating - "normal shortage", "serious shortage" and "power crisis" - see how your favorite town or industrial area gets along.
There seems to be a real number that is covered. In a country with insufficient power, what kind of business does the company want to establish?
The disaster in Beichuan: Combining power shortages with the number of factories that need to be relocated, few companies now want to rebuild on the active fault line, and the veil begins to lift their hidden things. Workers refuse to return to work until the government inspector signs the integrity of the building, although they may take months or years to reach each company. The dangerous psychology of workers and investors is a neglected factor in the Chinese equation. X. How attractive is the regional development zone in western China now?
For areas outside of China, it is normal to outsource heavy industry to China. Even the global renewable energy sector has many wind turbines and solar panels produced in China. Unfortunately, Deyang, a small town about an hour and a half north of Chengdu, has wind turbine operations, including large companies from Europe, Australia and North America, and part of the production at Dongfang Steam Turbine. In the same area there are also Oriental carbon fiber blades, wind towers and ball bearing operations supply parts. Buildings in the area around Deyang to Mianyang were severely damaged or flattened.
"Business Weekly" summarized an article entitled "Severe Damage to the Eastern Steam Turbine". The operation of China's largest steam turbine manufacturer, Dongfang Steam Turbine, and China's third largest wind turbine manufacturer has virtually disappeared. The East, which produces 30% of China's local turbines, estimates that the direct damage caused by the earthquake will reach $1 billion. Shares in its parent company, Dongfang Electric Corp., plummeted as the turbine business accounted for 20% of its 2007 revenue.
Although Chinese media reported that its wind turbine business facilities were not affected, insiders said that most of their senior wind power engineers were unfortunately killed, and one of the wind power component factories was seriously damaged.
Power shortage earthquake triangle: What did this leave for us? The peak of oil is obvious and can no longer be rejected. As a world we need to start transitioning to renewable energy, these conditions will enable China's wind power industry to recover within a year or two. China's response to the power shortage will be to build more coal-fired power plants. Since outsourcing production is now limited by fault lines and power shortages, what is our answer?
From west to Kunming, east to Chongqing, and north to Lanzhou, the power shortage earthquake triangle centered around Chengdu is a rough area from now on. Due to the small size of the East Coast, the central government is bringing new business to this exact area. This is why it is a great impetus to promote the economic development to the west. If you have been to the Chinese coast, you will see a social intensity.
Price is the main reason why we buy Chinese goods and own the industry there. However, when something is in short supply, it will cost more. Electricity is no exception. The East Coast now has a shortage of diesel every day, and there is a shortage of electricity in the west and the coast. Coupled with the recent appreciation of the renminbi and China is no longer a commercial utopia. Before the destruction of western China is repaired, the use of oil, natural gas and coal will replace hydropower to some extent. This in turn has brought higher prices to Chinese manufacturing. You will be paid at the checkout counter.
Please understand that the dependence of other countries in the world on Chinese exports is much lower than China's dependence on the rest of the world. We need to be prepared to take care of ourselves again. As oil prices continue to rise and the global economy declines, I believe we will see light industry returning to the country. If the light industry moves to other places and leaves China's heavy industry, China's power problems can be partially resolved. As our fossil fuel economy declines, the unemployment rate will become more and more fierce in the next few years.
A good way to get millions of people to work: take the company home...
Orignal From: China's renewable energy plan - shaken
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